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Strategic Traffic Flow Models based on Data-Mining and System-Identification Techniques

The objectives of this project are: 1) develop strategic traffic flow models for the National Airspace System (NAS) based on historical data using a data-driven/data mining approach, 2) use these relationships to improve the demand forecasting models and 3) adjust these models in real-time via observation of NAS data. Subsequently, the models can be used for designing optimal flow control strategies to achieve the desired demand-capacity balance in the NAS.

This work is supported by NASA Ames Research Center, under Task Order TO.048.0.BS.AF.

 

The first part of the project is described in [1] and summarized on this page. The animations can be played in Quicktime 7 or Windows Media Player 9 and above.

Abstract. A new Eulerian model of airspace is derived and applied to high altitude traffic for a full Air Traffic Control Center of the National Airspace System. The Eulerian model is reduced to a linear time invariant dynamical system, in which the state is a vector of aggregate aircraft counts. The model is validated against ASDI data and applied to the Oakland airspace. The problem of controlling sector aircraft count is posed as an Integer Program, in which the dynamical system appears in the contraints. To improve the computational time of calculating the solution, the Integer Program is relaxed to a Linear Program, solved for instances with more than one million variables. The computational results show that a high proportion of solutions of the LP are integers. The computational time is satisfactory for two hour Traffic Flow Management problems.


FACET (courtesy of NASA Ames). Click on image to start movie.
Eulerian models.
The almost uninterrupted growth of US air traffic over the last few decades has motivated the design of a semi-automated Air Traffic Control (ATC) system to help Air Traffic Controllers manage the increasing complexity of traffic flow in the en route airspace. ATC is operated at the sector level, where a sector is a small portion of the airspace controlled by a single human Air Traffic Controller. Traffic Flow Management (TFM) typically deals with traffic at the Center level, i.e. 10 to 20 sectors. TFM problems include maintaining the aircraft count in each sector below a legal threshold in order to ease the human ATC workload, as well as to ensure the safety of the flights [2]. This task is quite cumbersome; furthermore, extensive traffic forecast simulations (including all airborne aircraft) are computationally too expensive to include systematic investigations of traffic patterns that lead to sector overload. As a result, a new class of traffic flow models has emerged from recent studies: Eulerian models, which are control volume based [3]. This is in contrast to Lagrangian models, which are trajectory-based and take into account all aircraft trajectories.
Eulerian models have two main advantages over Lagrangian models:
(i) They are computationally tractable, and their computational complexity does not depend on the number of aircraft, but only on the size of the physical problem of interest.
(ii) Their control-theoretic structure enables the use of standard methodologies to analyze them.


Click on image to start movie.
Automated model building, and model validation.
Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI) data provides flight information for all airborne aircraft at a given time, updated every minute. It includes a time stamp and flight data (latitude, longitude, heading, altitude, etc.).
The objective of automated model building is to construct a graph-theoretic model of air traffic flow directly from the ASDI files. Several pattern recognition methods have been implemented to automatically build a graph model of the observed flows. The suite of algorithms investigated includes a variety of techniques, some of them relying purely on flight tracks, others using additional information that can be extracted from ASDI data (e.g. flight plan data). None of these algorithms have provided satisfactory results for practical purposes, thus leading to a graph-theoretic approach outlined in [1]. We developed an algorithm that takes the geographic structure of the airspace as a starting point for building the desired air traffic flow graph. Air traffic flow on this graph is modeled as a discrete time linear dynamical system.
This model is validated using ASDI data and Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) [4]. In particular, we show that the metric of interest for TFM (aircraft count) is reproduced adequately by the model.
The animation shows the comparison of the actual ASDI data and the simulation based on the model, for parts of Oakland, Salt Lake, Los Angeles and Seattle ARTCCs (ZOA, ZLC, ZLA, and ZSE). In particular, sector aircraft counts are displayed on the top graphs. Click on the left-hand side of the image for the movie in WMV Windows Media Player format, and on the right-hand side of the image for the movie in MOV Quicktime format.


Click on image to start movie.
MILP formulation of two-hour Traffic Flow Management.
The problem of controlling aircraft counts in the airspace is posed as a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP), where the dynamical system appears in the constraints, as is traditionally done in optimal control [5]. The mathematical formulation of the MILP is provided in [1]. Numerical experiments are run to demonstrate the tractability of these methods for problems involving more than one million integer variables. The running time is improved by relaxing the MILP to a Linear Program (LP) to provide guaranteed polynomial running time. The computational results show a high proportion of integer solutions to the LP, appropriate for the application of interest. The resulting computational time is satisfactory for two hour Traffic Flow Management problems (a few minutes for a two hour window).
The animation shows the results of the MILP, as well as the corresponding sector count in the controlled sector (ZOA33, colored on the animation). As a comparison, the situation in absence of control is also displayed: the capacity of ZOA33 (chosen arbitrarily as 10 aircraft in this study) is violated without actuation.

References.
[1] C.-A. Robelin, D. Sun, G. Wu, and A. M. Bayen, "MILP control of aggregate Eulerian network airspace models," accepted in February 2006 for publication in the Proceedings of the 2006 American Control Conference.
[2] S. Devasia, M. Heymann, abd G. Meyer, "Automation procedures for air traffic management: a token-based approach," in Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Anchorage, AK, May 2002, pp. 736-741.
[3] P. K. Menon, G. D. Sweriduk, and K. Bilimoria, "New approach for modeling, analysis and control of air traffic flow," AIAA Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 737-744, 2004.
[4] K. Bilimoria, B. Sridhar, G. Chatterji, K. Sheth, and S. Grabbe, "FACET: Future ATM concepts evaluation tool," in Proceedings of the 3rd USA/Europe ATM 2001 R&D Seminar, Naples, Italy, June 2001.
[5] F. Borreli, Ed., Constrained Optimal Control of Linear and Hybrid Systems, ser. Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences. New York, NY: Springer Verlag, 2003, vol. 290.


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